Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,422
2 New Jersey 19,481
3 Massachusetts 15,765
4 Rhode Island 15,727
5 District of Columbia 14,520
6 Connecticut 12,987
7 Louisiana 12,121
8 Delaware 11,528
9 Illinois 11,294
10 Maryland 11,141
11 Arizona 10,161
12 Nebraska 9,770
13 Iowa 9,039
14 Mississippi 8,702
15 South Dakota 7,552
16 Virginia 7,232
17 Alabama 7,228
18 Michigan 7,013
19 Pennsylvania 7,013
20 Georgia 6,856
21 Indiana 6,843
22 Utah 6,598
23 Florida 6,568
24 Arkansas 6,567
25 South Carolina 6,471
26 Minnesota 6,309
27 North Carolina 5,928
28 Tennessee 5,849
29 New Mexico 5,631
30 Colorado 5,607
31 Nevada 5,579
32 California 5,490
33 Wisconsin 5,276
34 Texas 5,252
35 Kansas 4,811
36 North Dakota 4,598
37 Washington 4,378
38 Ohio 4,303
39 New Hampshire 4,226
40 Kentucky 3,464
41 Missouri 3,463
42 Oklahoma 3,271
43 Idaho 2,993
44 Wyoming 2,448
45 Maine 2,373
46 Puerto Rico 2,250
47 Oregon 1,979
48 Vermont 1,926
49 West Virginia 1,580
50 Alaska 1,448
51 Montana 807
52 Hawaii 623

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 488
2 Florida 419
3 South Carolina 278
4 Nevada 246
5 Louisiana 202
6 Arkansas 193
7 Texas 178
8 Utah 167
9 Georgia 157
10 Mississippi 154
11 Alabama 151
12 North Carolina 147
13 California 131
14 Iowa 120
15 Tennessee 109
16 New Mexico 98
17 Nebraska 95
18 Kansas 92
19 Idaho 89
20 Wisconsin 86
21 Delaware 84
22 Minnesota 84
23 Oklahoma 83
24 South Dakota 76
25 Ohio 75
26 Virginia 69
27 Indiana 63
28 Missouri 63
29 Oregon 61
30 Washington 58
31 Illinois 57
32 Maryland 53
33 Wyoming 52
34 Kentucky 51
35 Colorado 47
36 North Dakota 44
37 District of Columbia 42
38 Alaska 40
39 Massachusetts 40
40 Pennsylvania 40
41 New Jersey 37
42 New York 36
43 Puerto Rico 32
44 Maine 30
45 Michigan 29
46 Connecticut 28
47 New Hampshire 26
48 West Virginia 25
49 Montana 18
50 Hawaii 11
51 Rhode Island 6
52 Vermont 5

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,685
2 New York 1,600
3 Connecticut 1,210
4 Massachusetts 1,169
5 Rhode Island 875
6 District of Columbia 779
7 Louisiana 688
8 Michigan 616
9 Illinois 560
10 Maryland 524
11 Delaware 520
12 Pennsylvania 519
13 Indiana 389
14 Mississippi 349
15 Colorado 291
16 New Hampshire 269
17 Minnesota 258
18 Georgia 257
19 Ohio 240
20 New Mexico 234
21 Iowa 223
22 Arizona 218
23 Virginia 202
24 Alabama 187
25 Washington 172
26 Missouri 166
27 Nevada 162
28 Florida 159
29 California 150
30 Nebraska 140
31 South Carolina 139
32 Wisconsin 134
33 Kentucky 129
34 North Carolina 127
35 North Dakota 115
36 South Dakota 102
37 Oklahoma 97
38 Kansas 93
39 Vermont 89
40 Arkansas 87
41 Tennessee 84
42 Texas 83
43 Maine 77
44 Utah 52
45 West Virginia 51
46 Idaho 50
47 Oregon 48
48 Puerto Rico 47
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 20
51 Alaska 16
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 4
2 Massachusetts 4
3 District of Columbia 3
4 New Jersey 3
5 Arkansas 2
6 Louisiana 2
7 Maryland 2
8 Mississippi 2
9 New Hampshire 2
10 Rhode Island 2
11 Virginia 2
12 Alabama 1
13 California 1
14 Connecticut 1
15 Florida 1
16 Illinois 1
17 Indiana 1
18 Kansas 1
19 Minnesota 1
20 New Mexico 1
21 New York 1
22 North Carolina 1
23 Pennsylvania 1
24 South Carolina 1
25 South Dakota 1
26 Alaska 0
27 Colorado 0
28 Delaware 0
29 Georgia 0
30 Hawaii 0
31 Idaho 0
32 Iowa 0
33 Kentucky 0
34 Maine 0
35 Michigan 0
36 Missouri 0
37 Montana 0
38 Nebraska 0
39 Nevada 0
40 North Dakota 0
41 Ohio 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Oregon 0
44 Puerto Rico 0
45 Tennessee 0
46 Texas 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 130,805 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,489 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 88,085 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 86,239 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 79,622 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 13,467 207 93
Richland South Carolina 7,901 509 83
Orange California 4,078 1058 66
York South Carolina 3,897 1106 64
Pierce Washington 3,116 1325 57

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Essex New Jersey 2,529 5 99
Richland South Carolina 195 678 78
Davidson Tennessee 158 774 75
Pierce Washington 107 997 68
Orange California 103 1020 67
York South Carolina 43 1513 51

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons